U.S. stock market outlook - The three major stock index futures all fell, and the "Wall Street fortune teller" warned not to rush to buy the bottom.

Pre-opening market trends

1. On April 19 (Friday) before the U.S. stock market opened, the three major U.S. stock index futures all fell. As of press time, Dow futures fell 0.11%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.09%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.25%.

2. As of press time, the German DAX index fell by 0.61%, the British FTSE 100 index fell by 0.44%, the French CAC40 index fell by 0.10%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.25%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 1.02% to US$81.89 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.99% to US$86.25 per barrel.

market news

Don’t rush to buy the bottom! The “Wall Street fortune teller” warns: There will be a wave of selling in U.S. stocks in the next few weeks. Tom Lee, co-founder and research director of Fundstrat, a financial market research institution known as the "Wall Street fortune teller", warned not to buy when the stock market falls now, because there will be a wave of selling in the stock market in the next few weeks before it really hits the bottom. . Tom Lee, who previously made very accurate predictions about the trend of the S&P 500 Index in 2023, is one of the most bullish analysts on the stock market this year. However, he warned that opportunistic investors should not rush into the market. He pointed out that the market volatility indicator VIX is surging, and rising volatility usually triggers investor selling, which may lead to short-term pressure on the stock market. He also said that if the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further, market volatility eases and investors show signs of slowing down the pace of selling, then U.S. stocks may bottom next month or even earlier.

Economist survey: The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates for the first time in September! It does not rule out not cutting interest rates within the year. According to the latest media survey, most of 100 economists believe that the Federal Reserve will wait until September before cutting interest rates. Although there is no high consensus among these economists on how much the Fed will cut interest rates this year, half of the respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice, 34 people think the Fed will cut interest rates more than twice, 12 people think it will cut interest rates only once, and 4 people think the Fed will cut interest rates once. People think the central bank will not cut interest rates at all this year. In addition, in the latest survey, economists’ outlook for various inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE have all improved significantly from last month. They do not expect these inflation indicators to reach 2% until at least 2026. The goal.

The Fed is "walking a tightrope" with the risk of a rate hike in June looming! The once unthinkable scenario of the Fed not cutting interest rates in 2024 is now giving way to another possibility, that is, the Fed will slightly raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June. This latest scenario can be seen in the Atlanta Fed's Market Probability Tracker, with SOFR options pricing in a roughly 3.6% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in June as of this week. “New York Fed President Williams didn’t push back on raising interest rates,” said Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics. “The FOMC, which sets policy, still has a lot of room to dispel expectations of a rate cut, which would tighten financial conditions.” “I think they do. Nervous about another rate hike, I hope they can manage the risk of a recession, but they are walking a tightrope and have much less room for error now than they did a few months ago."

IMF latest assessment: Saudi Arabia may now need triple-digit oil prices! The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that as OPEC+ leaders take the lead in production cuts, Saudi Arabia will need break-even oil prices this year to be higher than previously expected. The IMF said in its regional economic outlook report on Thursday that Saudi Arabia needs an average oil price of $96.20 a barrel to balance its budget, and that price assumes the kingdom's crude output stabilizes at around 9.3 million barrels a day this year. The agency's chief emerging market economist believes: "Once Saudi domestic investment is taken into account, the Saudi government may need an oil price close to $108 per barrel this year to fund its spending." OPEC+ will meet on June 1 to consider Whether supply restrictions will continue in the second half of this year. As conflict in the Middle East boosts markets, some analysts expect OPEC+ may start to ease its production cuts.

Wells Fargo is bullish on gold: If history serves as a guide, bigger gains are yet to come. Wells Fargo Investment Institute said gold still has room to rise after hitting all-time highs this year as "the changing interest rate landscape could be a particularly strong tailwind." Analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute said in a report that it is "no secret" that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates later this year if it is confident that U.S. inflation can sustainably fall to its 2% annual target. But “less well-known is that some of gold’s strongest performances in the past have occurred during Fed rate-cutting cycles.” Historically, gold prices have risen an average of 20% in the 24 months after the Fed began cutting interest rates, according to Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo analysts said: "We raise our forecast to $2,300-2,400 per troy ounce in 2024 and even higher in 2025, to $2,400-2,500 per troy ounce. We suspect that before moving higher in 2025, gold prices may Need a breather.”

individual stock news

The crackdown on shared accounts has paid off! Netflix (NFLX.US) added 9.33 million subscriptions in Q1 and will stop publishing subscription data next year. The financial report shows that Netflix’s first-quarter revenue was US$9.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, which was US$90 million higher than market expectations; net profit was US$2.332 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78.7%; earnings per share was US$5.28, and market expectations were 4.52 US dollars. Dollar. The company added 9.33 million subscribers in the first quarter, nearly double analysts' average estimate of 4.84 million. Netflix attracted new customers from around the world and performed particularly strongly in the United States and Canada. These new users helped the company's sales and earnings beat expectations as well. Netflix also said it would stop reporting paid membership and revenue per user starting in the first quarter of 2025. Those metrics have long been Wall Street's primary way of assessing company performance, but Netflix is trying to shift its focus to traditional metrics like sales and profits. Management will continue to report on major subscriber milestones. As of press time, Netflix’s U.S. stocks fell more than 5% before the market opened on Friday.

The chip market outlook is not optimistic, and TSMC (TSM.US) has lowered its market outlook. On April 18, TSMC lowered its expectations for chip market expansion, warning that the smartphone and personal computer markets remained weak. The world's largest advanced chip maker lowered its forecast for semiconductor market growth (excluding memory chips) in 2024 to about 10%. CEO Wei Zhejia also lowered his growth forecast for TSMC's leading foundry industry. At the same time, the company maintained its forecast for spending on capacity expansion and upgrades this year at between $28 billion and $32 billion. Wei Zhejia said in a conference call: "Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties still exist, which may affect consumer confidence and end market demand." As of press time, TSMC's U.S. stocks fell more than 2% before the market opened on Friday.

Procter & Gamble (PG.US) reported mixed Q3 results and raised its full-year EPS guidance. Procter & Gamble's Q3 sales were US$20.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, which was less than the market expectation of US$20.4 billion; endogenous sales excluding the impact of foreign exchange, acquisitions and asset divestitures increased by 3% year-on-year. Core earnings per share were $1.52, beating consensus estimates of $1.42. The company expects adjusted earnings per share to grow 10%-11% in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 8%-9%. The company maintained its forecast for full-year sales growth of 2% to 4%.

American Express (AXP.US) Q1 revenue increased 11% year-on-year, and profits exceeded expectations. American Express's Q1 revenue was US$15.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, slightly higher than market expectations of US$15.77 billion; net profit was US$2.4 billion, compared with US$1.8 billion in the same period last year; earnings per share was US$3.33, better than the market Expected $2.95. The company's credit card spending increased 6% to $367 billion, slightly above market expectations of $366 billion. Provisions for credit losses were $1.3 billion, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier but in line with market expectations. In addition, the company still expects revenue to grow 9%-11% in 2024.

Important economic data and event forecasts

22:30 Beijing time 2025 FOMC voting committee member and Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsby participated in the question and answer session